对气候变化和基于云模型的人类活动对洪水易感性的影响

Floods are generally considered to be the most common natural disaster worldwide. Climate change and human activity are two key driving factors of flood formation, and it is difficult to determine how to quantitatively detect their relative impacts on flood susceptibility. As an important non-engineering measure of preventing floods and reducing losses, flood susceptibility assessment is a synthetic task that involves many factors. In this study, the flood susceptibility in Guangdong Province, China, was assessed based on a cloud model. The relative impacts of climate change and human activity on flood susceptibility were also quantitatively investigated from the spatial perspective. The results prove that the cloud model is a feasible, reasonable, and effective method for flood susceptibility assessment. Approximately 40% of the studied areas have changed their flood susceptibility level since 1985 due to the comprehensive impacts of climate change and human activity, of which about 56.3% converted from a low to high level, and 43.7% from a high to low level. About 35.7% of the areas changed their susceptibility level due to climate change, of which 55.8% converted from a low to high level and 44.2% from a high to low level. In contrast, only 9.8% of the areas changed the susceptibility level due to human activity, of which 57.2% converted from a low to high level and 42.8% from a high to low level. Generally, from the spatial perspective, climate change has a larger impact on flood susceptibility than human activity. This study aims to provide a novel idea to quantitatively detect the relative impacts of climate change and human activity on flood susceptibility from spatial perspective; the findings of this study are also expected to enhance the understanding on distribution rule of flood susceptibility in Guangdong Province and are conducive to taking targeted measures to reduce the flood risk.

洪水通常被认为是最常见的自然灾害全球。气候变化和人类活动是两个关键的驱动因素。洪水的形成，很难确定如何定量检测其对洪水易感性的相对影响。如防洪减灾的重要非工程措施损失，洪水易感性评估是一项综合任务，涉及许多因素。本研究认为，洪水易感性中国广东省基于云模型进行评估。这气候变化和人类活动对洪水的相对影响还从空间定量研究了易感性透视。结果证明，该云模型是可行的，一种合理、有效的洪水易发性评价方法。大约40%的研究区域已经改变了洪水自1985 年以来的易感性水平，由于气候变化和人类活动，其中约56.3%从低到高，43.7%从高到低。约 35.7%由于气候变化，这些地区的易感性水平发生了变化，其中55.8%从低水平转换为高水平，44.2%从高水平转换为高水平低水平。相比之下，只有 9.8% 的区域改变了人类活动导致的易感性水平，其中 57.2% 转化从低到高，42.8%从高到低。一般从空间角度来看，气候变化对洪水易感性高于人类活动。本研究旨在提供定量检测气候相对影响的新思路从空间角度看洪水易感性的变化和人类活动透视;这项研究的结果还有望增强浅析广东省洪水易感性分布规律省，有利于采取有针对性的措施，减少洪水风险。